Mets fans who were hoping for a Christmas present or a Chanukah treat or a New Year's gift from Omar Minaya are disappointed. Everyone -- including Minaya himself -- stressed the need for a so-called ace or frontline starter this offseason. But with the costs of Johan Santana and Erik Bedard at a premium, Dan Haren already dispatched elsewhere and everything quiet on the San Francisco front, it's growing increasingly likely that the Mets will enter 2008 without the rotation anchor we've all been dreaming of.
Many short-sighted fans will demand that Minaya break the bank to bring in Santana but history and logic teach that trading away an entire farm system for a single player can jeopardize a team's present and future. The pitchers still rumored to be dealt for Santana, some combination of Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Aaron Heilman and Mike Pelfrey represent not only valuable assets for building the bullpen, but the team's entire wealth of depth in the rotation. Think about it this way: If the Mets trade three of those guys for Santana and use the fourth in a relief role, they'll be stretched very thin on both ends of the pitching staff. If one pitcher gets hurt -- and at least one will -- they'll have to scramble to replace him and won't have any expendable trading chips to do so with.
The same is true for Carlos Gomez, also part of the rumored Santana deal that I don't think will happen. Gomez, right now, represents the Mets' best option to replace any fallen outfielder at some point in 2008. Because Moises Alou will almost certainly spend time on the disabled list at some point, the Amazins will need a deep outfield. Endy Chavez is a great fourth outfielder, but it's become clear that the Mets don't think of him as anything more than that, and that they believe holes in his batting approach will be revealed with too much exposure. If that's true, it would be downright foolish to enter a season with a right-fielder who's been injured for large parts of the last three seasons. With Lastings Milledge in Washington and a lack of Major League-ready options in the system, Gomez represents the Mets' entire contingency plan. As good as Santana is, he'll only pitch one in every five games and he'll struggle to win them if the Mets have to field a replacement-level outfielder in Alou's absence -- not to mention the weak-hitting Brian Schneider behind the plate.
Sure, you could scour the wires and find some cheap free-agent options to fill out the rotation and back up in the outfield. But then what do you do in 2009? 2010? It's impossible to keep plugging holes with aging replacement players, and the Mets will be short on trading cogs and young talent if they mortgage the future now. Plus, the huge contract Santana will inevitably yield could cripple the team five or six years from now, when his talents have diminished but his earnings have not.
But just because the Mets might not bring in a Cy Young candidate this offseason doesn't mean they don't already have one on their roster. When Pedro Martinez last pitched a complete season, his ERA+ -- a park- and league-adjusted stat set so the average pitcher's number is around 100 -- was 145. That would have been good for fourth in the National League in 2007. As a point of comparison, of Bedard, Haren and Santana, only the Orioles lefty posted a better figure, with 146. Haren's ERA+ last season was 137 and Santana's was 130. Obviously, Pedro's three years older now and can't be expected to match his 2005 season, but he claims to be in great shape and even a 20-percent decline from 2005 would put him in the top 10 of National League pitchers.
Pedro could get hurt again, though. No arguing that. But John Maine could also be the ace the Mets are searching for. After all, as a 26-year-old in 2007, Maine won 15 games with a 3.91 ERA and an impressive 180 strikeouts in 191 innings. With the increased stamina, control and wisdom that come from a year of Major League experience, Maine can be expected to improve in 2008. It's impossible to predict by how much, but his 2007 was very similar to a recent effort of another young pitcher from the Orioles system, Bedard. In 2006, the left-handed Bedard won 15 games with a 3.76 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 196 1/3 innings. It's hard to expect Maine to improve in 2008 the way Bedard did in 2007, but it's not out of the question. With his high strikeout rate and proven ability to come up big when the Mets need him most, Maine could in 2008 earn the All-Star nomination he deserved in 2007.
Lastly, though he's the biggest risk of the three, Oliver Perez has shown the ability to dominate National League hitters in the past. Sure, he's had far more downs than ups since his outstanding 2004 season, but his 2007 season showed a lot of promise. Perez finished the year with a 120 ERA+ and struck out 8.85 batters per nine innings, second only to Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. While the 20 unearned runs that Perez allowed in 2007 suggest that he may have been lucky to keep his ERA so low, the confidence and guile he earned in his successful season could help him improve in 2008. Keep in mind that Perez will not turn 27 until August, so he's theoretically still improving. There's still a chance he could return to his 2004 form.
So perhaps Omar's best play would be to stand pat, especially considering the way his recent trades have turned out. It's easy to dismiss the Mets because of the way the 2007 season ended and suggest that they won't be able to compete in 2008, but don't forget that the team led the division for most of the season. With young players like Maine, Perez, Jose Reyes and David Wright still improving and veterans like Martinez and Carlos Delgado hunting for comeback seasons, the Mets have as good a chance as anyone to win the division. And their chances to repeat in 2009 and beyond will be better if they hang on to their young talent and avoid the temptation to spend too much -- both in prospects and in dollars -- on any single player.
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