While Mets fans were right to react with joy to the Johan Santana trade, it is important to recognize that the team sacrificed a significant part of its farm system to bring the talented lefty to Flushing. The three pitchers and one hitter could help form the core of the next great Twins team. While the older, better-known prospects -- center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitcher Philip Humber -- project to be useful players, the younger prospects the Mets sent to Minneapolis -- Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra -- had some of the highest ceilings in the farm system.
Still, the Mets are a team geared to win today, and the Santana trade makes them a clear favorite to represent the National League in the World Series. Santana is the ace the Mets were missing in 2006 and 2007. At age 29, he is a masterful pitcher at the height of his powers, capable of making the ball dance and vanish like few others.
Santana is his generation's version of his new teammate Pedro Martinez.
But to acquire a quality player a team must cede quality talent. The much-maligned Mets farm system yielded four of its top 10 prospects, to be sure:
Right now, Gomez's primary skill may be his athleticism. At 22, he's clearly the next in a line of Mets prospects who were rushed to the Majors based largely on their tools. Gomez has never generated the eye-popping statistical line that his reputation would indicate. That's not to impugn Gomez's talent -- when his tools begin translating to performance, the Twins will have themselves a fantastic ballplayer.
Gomez compares poorly to another of the rushed Mets, Jose Reyes. The outfielder has an overall Minor League line of .278/.336/.399; Reyes' was .285/.336/.423. Reyes was also younger at virtually every level, to boot.
However, consider Gomez's performances at the higher levels, particularly at Triple-A, where he played his home games in New Orleans' cavernous Zephyr Field. In a not-insignificant sample size of 157 plate appearances, Gomez nearly doubled his 2006 walk rate while slugging .414 in a treacherous hitting environment. He reached base in 36 percent of the time, which falls in line with his career numbers. Gomez's on-base percentage has trended up since 2005, while his slugging peaked at .423 in 2006 before he fell victim to the brackish Louisiana summer.
Gomez also converted 17 of his 21 steal attempts, an 81 percent rate. In fact, Gomez's 141 career Minor League steals and 78 percent success rate beat Reyes' 129 steals and 75 percent success rate. Gomez may never develop power numbers, but if he can continue to get on base at a reasonable clip, steal plenty of bags at a high rate and play a good center field, he'll be a useful player in Minnesota.
To give some indication of Gomez's future, turn to his peak translation, a fun exercise performed by Baseball Prospectus' Clay Davenport that applies an aging curve to available stats to assess a player's production at his peak -- usually accepted to be age 27. Gomez's peak translation of .303/.361/.413 hints at a top-of-the-order-type skill set. His .277 peak Equivalent Average puts him safely in the above-average category; his overall value would resemble a Torii Hunter or Bob Abreu circa 2007. Gomez is, of course, still a young player who may develop power as he ages. If he can play center field, he's well on his way to being a good-not-great player. If he can find power somewhere, he could become Carlos Beltran lite. But he wasn't going to stand in the way of the Mets acquiring Johan Santana.
Humber has been largely viewed as a disappointment since the Mets selected the Rice University product third overall in the 2004 draft. Humber didn't curry favor with the New York media when he held out until January of the following year. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2005, the right-hander has steadily worked his way up the chain to Triple-A, where he posted a respectable 4.27 ERA in 2007. Throughout his Minor League career, Humber showed the ability to strike out hitters. His 120 strikeouts in 139 innings at New Orleans were more than adequate, especially when compared with only 44 walks. Humber could probably pitch out of the bullpen right now and may develop into a serviceable starter down the road.
Kevin Mulvey, 22, has more upside than Humber. A second-round pick out of Villanova in 2006, Mulvey has the potential to develop into an excellent pitcher. In 152 innings at Binghamton last year, Mulvey struck out 110 while yielding only 43 walks. Moreover, with Mulvey on the mound, batters hit the ball on the ground a whopping 55 percent of the time. Mulvey would have thrived with Jose Reyes and David Wright behind him, and he will thrive with Minnesota's strong defense behind him. He's probably not a finished product, but given some time to develop he can become a groundball machine capable of logging tons of easy innings.
The jewel of the deal may wind up being Deolis Guerra, though. Guerra has been the pitching version of Fernando Martinez over the past few seasons: a talented teenager who has been pushed aggressively. In 2006, Guerra shined at Class A Hagerstown, striking out 64 in 81.2 innings while forcing a 47 percent groundball rate. Those numbers equated to a stellar 2.20 ERA. His ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie this season wasn't as neat -- 4.42 -- but he struck out 66 batters in 89 innings and forced a chewy 50 percent groundball rate. What's most encouraging about Guerra's performance was his walk rate, which fell from 11.3 percent in 2006 to 6.7 percent in 2007.
At 19, Guerra is still projectible -- while he stands six-foot-five, he only weighs 200 pounds. It's not outside the realm of possibility for his fastball to increase in velocity as he adds muscle to his frame. As it is, he comfortably sits in the low-to-mid 90s.
Guerra is a few years away but fits the mold of a high-upside starter capable of forcing quick innings with easy groundouts. Of the four Mets heading to Minnesota, Guerra's ceiling is generally agreed to he the highest: Statheads love his peripheral stats, particularly at a young age; seamheads love his projectibility and stuff. If he stays healthy, Guerra's not a bad bet to make a splash somewhere down the line, much like Francisco Liriano did for the Twins in 2006.