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If the Yankees do not take this series from the Mets, it has to be seen as a disappointment in Yankeeland.

Since 1997, the Mets have come into Yankee Stadium 10 times during the regular season (prior to this series). And, in only one of those ten visits have the Mets ever taken two of three games from the Yankees (2005). In the other three game sets, the Yankees have taken two of the three games eight times and swept the Mets once (in 2003). Therefore, in the past, when the Mets have visited the Bronx for three games, the Yankees have won the series 90% of the time. It's because of that track record that anything less than two wins from the Yankees this weekend should be classified as a failure.

Also, Hank Steinbrenner will be watching these games and the "Hank Phone" will be glowing red with media calls should the Mets come into Yankee Stadium and kick his team around - another reason why it's important that the Yanks win at least two games.

So, how will the Yankees win?

As always, it comes down to pitching. Each of the Yankees scheduled starting pitchers will have go at least five innings in their starts - and it would be even better if they could complete six frames. However, it does not stop there - as merely providing innings will not be enough. In addition to getting the game into the sixth inning, the Yankees starters will have to limit the Mets bats to three runs or less before turning the game over to their bullpen.

These days, without Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, and with Robinson Cano, Jason Giambi, and Melky Cabrera sometimes running cold with the lumber, the Yankees are basically trying to produce runs with half a line-up and spotting the other team about 15 free outs per game. So, it's an absolute must for the Yankees starters to keep the game close for them to have a chance to win.

This could be a problem. Darrell Rasner (Friday's starter) will be making only his third big league start this season and will be pitching on an extra day's rest - a bugaboo for a control pitcher like him. And, (Saturday's starter) Andy Pettitte has an ERA of 5.19 at the Stadium so far this season.

Luckily, (Sunday's starter) Chien-Ming Wang is money in the bank at home. However, he'll be facing the Mets' John Maine who has been lights-out so far in May (with an ERA of 1.77 in 3 starts).

Actually, the Mets other starters will present problems for the Yankees as well. Lefties have only batted .103 against (Saturday's starter) Oliver Perez and the Yankees line-up is heavily weighted with them. (Also, while Perez' ERA this season is almost five, it's 3.86 on the road.) Lastly, some guy named Johan Santana will be pitching the other game for the Mets (on Friday).

When you see the significant stats for the Mets pitchers slated to start this series, and factor in the Yankees' offensive woes, it becomes very clear that the Yankees will need Rasner, Pettitte and Wang to be on their game to win these games.

Coming into the games of May 14th, the Mets bullpen had allowed an OPS of .700 - which is just about league average for this split. On the flipside, the Yankees bullpen had allowed an OPS of .654 - which is better than league average.

If the Yankees starters can keep these games close, then I like the chances of their bullpen holding the line, and them winning against the Mets.

If the Mets intend to win this weekend's series against the Yankees, taking at least two or three games in the Bronx, they will do so by way of their starting pitchers: Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine.

Santana, who has a 2.66 ERA lifetime against the Yankees, will be facing Darrell Rasner, who will be making just his third start of the season. The Mets are notorious for struggling against pitchers they have never seen before. However, in this case, the edge must go to Santana, assuming Hank Steinbrenner doesn't kidnap Johan and force him to dress in Pinstripes before the game.

Maine has not allowed two or more runs in seven straight starts. He has been the team's most consistent pitcher. However, I worry about the Mets facing Chien-Ming Wang, who will start opposite Maine, since they often struggle against ground-ball pitchers. In short, I prefer Maine in this scenario, but I do not trust the Mets bats against Wang.

This means the pivot-game will be on Perez's shoulder, so to speak. Perez is up and down, back and forth, and totally unreliable. However, he always seems to step up in big spots - and with the media attention, the rowdy fans, and pitching in Yankee Stadium, I expect him to wake up, be on his game and be better than his opponent, Andy Pettitte, who the Mets have hit well in the past.

Additionally, the Mets offense has begun clicking of late, helped out mostly by Moises Alou's return from the disabled list, as well as Ryan Church, who is making a strong case to appear in the All-Star Game. Also, the Mets recently restructured their bullpen a bit, which has looked significantly better over the last week or so. All around, the team is in much better shape than it was a few weeks ago.

The thing is, and what worries me, is that I believe the Mets have far more to lose this weekend by being embarrassed by the Yankees, than the Yankees have to lose by being embarrassed by the Mets. The expectations for the Mets coming in to this season were much higher than for the Yankees, and so - for the first time in a long while - there may actually be more pressure on the Mets.

Nevertheless, the Mets will go to battle with their three best starting pitchers, which should put them in a strong position to squeak out a series win.