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But saying they merely are going to play better isn't saying much. Here's the heart of the matter: CoolStandings.com puts the Mets chances of making the playoffs at 16 percent, positively bullish in light of the prevailing wisdom here in the New York area. But I say the odds are about twice that given the quality of the teams they are chasing in the division and for the Wild Card.

My bullish stance on the Mets is not dependent on any magic from interim manager Jerry Manuel and the new coaches (pitching coach Rick Peterson and first-base coach Tom Nieto were also swept away). I accept the studies that say firing a coach or manager in sports has little impact on performance (PDF).

But most of the teams that fire managers are bad and I do not accept that the Mets are a bad team. They are a team that's been snakebit by injury and other assorted bad luck. For example, they haven't had one stretch all year where two of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran have gotten white hot at the same time. That's a prerequisite for any winning streak. And that likely will come.

Yes, the Mets' record since last Memorial Day is pitifully bad, and it can be reasonably argued that this is a .500 team. But I reject that on the grounds that New York has not had either Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana for much of that time and has had both active for about two weeks of it.

Let's give the Phillies their due and assume, even, that they are going to continue to play well above .500 for the balance of the year and hold most, if not all, of their 6 1/2-game lead over the Mets. That leaves the Wild Card.

Granted, the Mets are further behind the Cardinals now than they are the Phillies. And the Cubs are running away with the Central and much stronger on paper. All Wild Card plans are predicated on a Cardinals fall.

Remember, St. Louis was expected to be terrible this year and is currently beset by injuries with little organizational depth.

Albert Pujols is out at least two more weeks and likely more with a strained calf. He also has a torn elbow ligament that doctors say is "asymptomatic."

Their pitching staff is in shambles. Adam Wainwright is out at least another month with a finger sprain. Chris Carpenter's elbow is sore again and he may need another surgery, but at the least his rehabilitation has been slowed. And Todd Wellemeyer, one of the huge surprises fueling the Cards' first-half run, is also battling elbow soreness and has averaged only about 100 innings a year in his professional career. So he's likely hitting the wall already (at 83-plus innings).

Their healthy hurlers all pitch to contact (St. Louis ranks 23rd in strikeouts). They've been above average both in converting balls in play into outs on defense and into hits on offense. Expect a regression there.

And of course, there's 30-year-old journeyman Ryan Ludwick hitting like a league MVP (his OPS is higher than Pujols'). His career slugging percentage in nine Minor League seasons: .501.

Of course, the Mets first have to get past at least two teams in the division, Florida and Atlanta.

The Marlins are crashing back to earth. Only one of their starters is older than 25, and none has ever thrown more than 183 innings. They have no chance.

The Braves have been unlucky (run differential says they should be eight games over .500, not two under). They need untested rookies Jair Jurrjens and Jo-Jo Reyes to continue to pitch well and for Charlie Morton to translate the remarkable progress he made in Triple-A to the Majors. Even if we accept that these young arms are legitimate, the innings wall will likely prove insurmountable by late August or early September. That means that the Braves need something from Tom Glavine (nursing an elbow tear until at least the All-Star break) and Mike Hampton (who is rehabbing yet again and hasn't pitched in the majors in 34 months and counting).

The Mets are not in the dire straits the standings suggest.

Pedro Martinez is back and throwing well. Carlos Delgado has a .842 OPS the past month, acceptable for a first baseman. Jose Reyes has hit .311 with a .514 slugging percentage and 19 steals since May 1. Carlos Beltran (two homers Monday) now has a .920 OPS the past month. David Wright has slumped, terribly, the last couple of weeks (.593 OPS); but that won't last. Ryan Church's concussion has been handled incompetently, but he's begun to exercise and should be activated when the Mets return home on June 23.

Left field will likely remain a black hole: Moises Alou is now officially Fred G. Sanford. I'm not questioning his desire, but he's completely unreliable and must now be written off.

But Luis Castillo is underrated given his .368 on-base percentage. If only he can last the season with his various leg injuries. He hurt himself again sliding into home Monday.

Oliver Perez bounced back (12 innings, five walks, 13 K's) from his worst outing as a Met. John Maine remains solid. Mike Pelfrey has a Cardinals-like inability to miss bats (last week's eight-strikeout outing was an abberation), but he can be a suitable fifth starter. The best is yet to come from Santana and, I'm convinced, Martinez (as long as he doesn't suffer another freak injury).

New York was expected to win about 93 games to start the year. That's about .575 baseball. If the Mets do that the balance of the year, they win 87 games, which I think will put them right there with the Cardinals and everyone else. And if they play .600 the remainder of the year -- doable assuming a healthy Pedro -- that's 90 wins, which I guarantee will be enough for October baseball.