Let's talk to a National League scout who covers the American League and Baseball America's John Manuel to get an update on how Yankees prospects are progressing in fall and winter leagues.
The two main attractions in the Arizona Fall League for Yankees fans were pitcher Phil Hughes and center fielder Austin Jackson.
"Fastball velocity and command will be the key for Hughes," says Manuel, busy putting the finishing touches on Baseball America's fine Prospect Handbook (slated to be released Dec. 19 and available at BaseballAmerica.com)." If he's 89-92, as he was most of the AFL, he's got to have better command. If he's 90-93, it can be just control, not necessarily command. It sounds to me like the scouting consensus is more mid-rotation than ace these days. The obvious first step is to just stay healthy; he's done that exactly once in his career, 2006."
But it's that disappointing injury history that gives our scout hope that Hughes can beat current market projections of a No. 3 starter.
"Hughes is sliding unfairly because he hasn't been healthy. When you're always rehabbing from injury, your velocity will suffer. What we have here is the expectation game. Calling him a No. 1-level ace was never fair. But to me he still looks like he can be a No. 2 guy to me on a championship-caliber team.
"If he is going to be stuck at 91, then he's a No. 3 guy," the scout continues. "But I think he'll get back to being a tick higher, 92-to-94 mph. That's the key to what he becomes. Again, a lot of this is expectations. We get silly published reports that guys like Hughes throw 95 or 97 when maybe they've done it a few times on someone's gun. People expect that and then keep asking, 'Where's the 97-mph fastball?'"
Our scout says Jackson is the Yanks' No. 1 prospect, a view shared by Manuel.
"The whole with Jackson is greater than the sum of the parts," says Manuel, Baseball America's editor. " And the parts are fine. His poor AFL performance shows he's not ready for 2009. But he will be a very solid everyday player down the line. I give him a good chance to be an above-average big league center fielder. Better than Bernie Williams on defense, not quite that good offensively at his peak."
The scout's comp is outfielder Reggie Sanders, who played with the Reds and then bounced around.
"Nice athlete. Nice bat speed. Similar to Mets outfielder Fernando Martinez in that he hasn't had that big Minor League year. Like Sanders, contact rate/plate recognition is his problem. He gets himself out. Prospect-wise, he's solid, not spectacular -- not untouchable by any means. I'd trade him as a main piece for a No. 2 pitcher without thinking twice."
The next-best prospect with an offseason resume is pitcher Andrew Brackman.
"He had the best arm in Hawaii Winter Baseball," says Manuel, who rated him that league's No. 2 prospect. "He's inconsistent, showing lots of rust coming back from Tommy John surgery. But he hit 97 mph and consistently sat at 91-96. He has an inconsistent curveball, but a surprising, firm mid-80s changeup."
Our scout didn't seem as impressed.
"He needs one of his too curveballs -- a knuckle-curve that's harder and a loopy one that probably should be scrapped. He can't change speeds well because he's so tall and thus has trouble repeating his motion. And he's already 23. He's high risk, high reward and can't afford another injury."
Here's their take on other notables the Yankees have tried to develop this offseason.
On Ian Kennedy, or scout says, "His stuff is marginal but he's tough when everything is clicking. He'll have some good stretches in the majors as a starter, I'm convinced. The Yankees seemingly have turned the page because they put Hughes in the AFL, which is developmental, while Kennedy was awarded to the tougher Puerto Rico league because I think they're trying to establish some trade value -- hoping he'll pitch well against better competition [than there is in the AFL]."
Says Manuel about Kennedy: "He has to have premium command to be a four-pitch, four average pitches guy. His best pitch, the slider, was a 55 (on the 80 scouting scale). He is supposed to be a pitchability/command guy. But does he have the guts to throw his pitch?"
Infielder Kevin Russo: "A Triple-A lifer? Maybe a cup of coffee because he probably can't pay short," says the scout. Manuel says he's a top-30 Yankees prospect, but probably just a 2B/utility guy with good contact skills.
First baseman Juan Miranda: "He has power and bat speed, but it doesn't show up in the games," says our scout. "I thought he hung in against lefties OK in the AFL. But he adds nothing else -- bad defense, slow. Guys like him have to hit a ton and I don't think he will. So he will never be a regular on the Yanks."
Catcher Austin Romine: "He didn't crack the HWB list," says Manuel. "Scouts thought he looked tired, and he suffered in comparison to two first-round picks from '08 draft who were in Hawaii, Buster Posey and Jason Castro. He'll be fine, though. He's a little rough in catching/receiving, but has a plus arm, plus power and solid bat."
The scout has a different take. "While he has plus arm strength, he threw out 20 percent of baserunners. And he had 18 passed balls. The stats don't back up the defensive tools. Offensively, he'll have doubles power, struggle with average and generate decent walks."
Manuel noted how Jeremy Bleich made his Hawaii list as the best lefty pitcher in the league. "He has a better fastball than I gave him credit for, not in terms of velocity but command and ability to pitch inside.
"Also, the Yankees love Jonathan Albaladejo, whom the Pirates gave up on. He's having success in Puerto Rico. Scouts underrate him because he's a bad-body guy. But he could be a useful middle reliever for the big club in 2009."