When you've been trashing the Jets all year based on objective data and they seem to contradict it with a couple of big games, do not recant. Instead, double down. That's the smart play and the lesson I've recently learned.
Since I very unwisely recanted two weeks ago, the Jets have taken on the taint of rotten eggs. The evidence the last two weeks and for the entire season now is crystal clear: the Jets are not a good team, nor are they well-coached. That's doesn't mean they're bad and that Eric Mangini and staff should be fired. It only means that most years this team would not even be sniffing for a division title in December.
But this is not most years.
Before we briefly preview the Jets-Bills game, which we should be paid to watch as part of any stimulus package, let's look at the AFC East by the numbers.
Right now, in my stat power index, which ranks teams based on how they do in the categories that have traditionally most strongly correlated to winning (net yards per play, net red-zone possessions, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage), the division does not have a single playoff-worthy team. That's a status earned by at least being in the top 12 in the cumulative index rankings (remember, there are 12 teams that qualify for the postseason).
The Dolphins are the best division team right now, statistically. They are tied for 13th. The Patriots are 20th, the Jets 21st and the Bills 22nd.
So, the Dolphins will ultimately prevail, right? Not exactly. The Dolphins aren't superior enough to the Jets to overcome the Jets' home-field advantage in Week 17. Of course, New York is favored to beat the Bills this week, but only by four in our index -- not the seven cited by Vegas. And the Jets are well enough ahead of the 29th-ranked Seahawks to be a favorite in the season finale at Seattle. So, New York should win all three of its remaining games. This, of course, cements the division championship -- nothing to sneeze at as the Jets have only won one three times in their 48-year history.
As the recent losses (and the earlier one in Oakland) have proven, though, nothing is remotely guaranteed with this Jets team.
The oddsmakers are taxing the Bills for the good chance that J.P. Losman starts again. Losman was worse than terrible last week in Toronto against the Dolphins. But in the last two games at the Meadowlands (both Bills wins), he has gone 13-for-20 for 270 yards and three touchdowns, including two huge bombs to Lee Evans, a Jets killer.
Trent Edwards has looked as bad as Losman looked last week, lacks a strong arm and is injured. So, Jets fans need to hope for Edwards, I think.
Do you believe the Jets are fifth in the NFL in points per game? That's so deceptive, built primarily on 100 points scored in home wins over the Cardinals and Rams. This offense is not league average right now, as the downfield passing game is not even on the horizon. It's about as believable now as Bigfoot or Nessie. It's a myth fashioned entirely out of Brett Farve's fabled past.
It shouldn't be this hopeless, though, even with the Jets' ordinary receivers. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are still good enough to beat safeties. So is Leon Washington. Put Washington in the lineup and motion him out wide on base downs and you force a defense to match up a safety or linebacker on one of these guys. And you absolutely force the a defense to choose to cover either Washington or Dustin Keller with a linebacker.
The Jets receivers need their coaches to create mismatches via formation like the last great Jets team did in 1998 with Charlie Weis calling plays so deftly. Keyshawn Johnson, Wayne Chrebet and Dedric Ward were not especially gifted. Keyshawn had great size and toughness but was at best an average athlete for an NFL wide receiver. Still, these guys were open all year (28 receiving touchdowns in the 13 games started by Vinny Testaverde starts, with a sterling YPA). Coaching matters more in the NFL than in any other sport, and it's not close.
Prediction time: The Bills have no running game and an unprofessional passing game. This is a good matchup for the Jets. Just make sure that Darrelle Revis follows Evans all over the field and I can't see how the Bills offense scores more than 14 points.
The Jets should be able to dink and dunk and run their way to about 20 at home versus the Bills. Forget about a sudden passing epiphany. It's not happening. There will be no downfield game for this team this year and that ultimately will prove to be its undoing. But not this week.
Washington's major contribution, sadly, will again be limited to special teams. Brett Favre must not turn the ball over if the Jets offense is going to be devoid of big plays. If he throws more than one pick, the Jets lose. He won't. Jets 19, Bills 14.
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