02/02/2009 12:51 PM ET
Bracket Junkie: Hoyas, Irish in danger zone
Georgetown loses fifth straight at Marquette, drops to No. 12
By Brendon Desrochers / SNY.tv
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Bracketing challenges: The distribution of seeds for the Big East continues to be a major hurdle for creating a balanced bracket. Here are the true seeds for the eight Big East teams in the field -- 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 10, 11. That means that seven of the eight Big East teams should rightfully be placed in the bottom half of the four regions. But with only four spots, that means three teams have to move. This time, I moved two up -- Villanova and Syracuse -- and one down -- Georgetown -- at the expense of Minnesota and Dayton and to the benefit of Siena. If the Big East were to earn a ninth bid, then the job of bracketing the teams would actually become easier, because a ninth team would give me the flexibility to place one team in the same half of a region as another team from the league. Until then, though, no two teams from the same conference can be in the same group of eight.

The Bubble: There was a lot of movement on either side of the bubble but very little crossover. Georgetown, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State all stayed just in the field despite losses. All three teams were 0-2 last week and will have a tough time justifying a continuance with another loss. The schedule shifts in the favor of each team, so the three must take advantage. The Hoyas host Rutgers and the look for revenge against Cincinnati on Saturday. VaTech has the mid-week off before hosting Georgia Tech next Sunday. OSU hosts Texas Tech for what should be a brief respite before traveling to Kansas on the weekend.

On the other side, three schools are making a run at the field but are still just short. K-State knocked off Missouri and Texas last week to move to 3-4 in conference with a home date against Iowa State upcoming. Texas A&M defeated Texas Tech and Oklahoma State at home. The Aggies travel to Oklahoma before hosting Kansas State in a second straight Saturday bubble battle for Mark Turgeon. Northwestern had home wins over Indiana and Wisconsin by a combined five points last week to move to 4-5 in the Big Ten. Bill Carmody's club hosts Chicago State on Wednesday in a non-conference scuffle before traveling to Iowa for a tricky game that the Cats probably will need to get in the field.

Moving in: Penn State's win at Michigan State makes the Nittany Lions 6-3 in conference and puts them in the field. PSU hasn't made the NCAA Tournament since 2001 when such names from the past as Calvin Booth, Joe Crispin and Titus Ivory led the No. 7 seed past Providence and North Carolina and into the Sweet 16.

Moving in as Automatics: East Tennessee State, Stephen F. Austin

Moving out: The Nittany Lions' entrance comes at the expense of conference foe Michigan. The Wolverines lost twice more last week, were blown out on the road both times and had a player ejected in each loss. On Saturday in West Lafayette, Ind., it was Manny Harris who got the boot after elbowing Purdue guard Chris Kramer. I thought it was a particularly harsh judgment. A foul? Yes. An intentional foul? Perhaps. An ejection? Surely not. The Wolverines collapsed soon after Harris' exit in a second consecutive 18-point loss.

Moving out as Automatics: Jacksonville, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

The top four lines: The committee should and does spend a lot of time pondering who should receive the 16 No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds for the tournament and in what order. The eventual champion and all four Final Four teams are likely to come from this group of 16, and proper balance of the top four seed lines gives a tournament its best shot of crowning the appropriate champion. Here are the movers and shakers on those four lines.

Moving up: North Carolina nabs the final No. 1 seed in the wake of Wake's loss at Georgia Tech. I still have UNC lowest on that line, a step behind Duke. Marquette makes its first foray on to the No. 2 seed line with a dominant second half in Saturday's win over Georgetown. The Golden Eagles remain unbeaten in conference with three road games awaiting, including trips to DePaul and USF this week. Gonzaga gets on the No. 4 seed line after throttling San Diego at home. As we'll see in a second, though, it's not so much what the Zags did to get into the top 16 but what a team did to get knocked out that mattered most.

Moving down: The most surprising result of the weekend may have come in Atlanta, where previously conference-winless Georgia Tech knocked off Wake Forest on Gani Lawal's buzzer-beater. It was the second straight time Wake had dropped the game immediately following a home win to UNC or Duke. Michigan State dropped another head-scratching home game, this time blowing a 13-point lead to Penn State on Sunday. The Spartans' guards found Talor Battle unguardable, as the sophomore lit them up for 29 points. Texas is the only team to fall from the top four seed lines after the Longhorns lost at home to Kansas State, 85-81, in overtime. University of Miami transfer Denis Clemente had 44 for the Wildcats in the upset.

I'm doing my Big East breakdown in the context of examining two key matchups that will affect my next bracket.

Big East Breakdown: The Big East's portion of Big Monday has not disappointed this season with matchups of ranked teams each week. On Monday night, the best matchup of the Big East season to date has Louisville hosting Connecticut. The Cards already knocked off one No. 1 team this season when they sent home formerly undefeated Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago. This should be UConn's first game as a No. 1, and no team has been very secure with the top ranking. Should Louisville win and stay undefeated in conference, the Cards will have built up a pretty strong case for an eventual No. 1 seed. I like UConn's ability to take care of the ball and neutralize Louisville's frontcourt strength in this matchup.

Consider this Harangody's last stand. Notre Dame travels to Cincinnati on Wednesday for a matchup of two teams clinging to NCAA Tournament dreams. The Irish have lost five straight, but this matchup is Notre Dame's first against an unranked team since Jan. 10. With UCLA and Louisville following the game with the Bearcats, Notre Dame finds itself in a must-win situation. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is in a similar position as Notre Dame but looking at things through far rosier lenses. A win over the Irish would get Cincinnati back to .500 in conference and keep Mick Cronin's team's hopes for an NCAA bid in tact.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 2)
Louisville (No. 2)
Marquette (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 6, moved to No. 5 for bracket balancing)
West Virginia (No. 6)
Syracuse (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for bracket balancing, ninth-to-last in)
Georgetown (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing, fourth-to-last in)
Providence (seventh-to-last out)
Cincinnati (10th-to-last out)
Notre Dame (16th-to-last out)

Brendon Desrochers is a contributor to SNY.tv. You can also find his pieces at BaselineStats.com. You can contract Brendon directly at brendon.desrochers@mlb.com.
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