I would not want to be Omar Minaya this offseason. Not just because, as far as I can tell, the Pepsi Party Patrol may have more autonomy right now than he does. And not because he could have little cash to spend and a fair number of holes.
No, the biggest problem Minaya faces is in evaluating his own team. The 2009 Mets' season, on an individual basis, may be the least predictive one in team history, and not just because Pat Misch threw a complete game shutout Sunday. There doesn't seem to be a single given heading into 2010.
This starts at the very top of the roster. Johan Santana is a fantastic starting pitcher who is coming off of elbow surgery. The prognosis is good, but anyone who thinks a pitcher coming off of elbow surgery is a given hasn't been paying attention.
David Wright not only had a puzzling season prior to getting beaned, but he's hitting .220/.270/.330 since returning from his concussion. There's every reason to suspect this will be a brief detour on his trip to Cooperstown, but his struggles leave reason for worry heading into 2010.
The other superstar offensive players on the Mets, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, have injury-related questions. In Beltran's case, while his performance since returning has been solid, his knee injury hasn't gone away. Are there 150-160 games in him next season?
Jose Reyes, meanwhile, looks like he won't be returning in 2009. This makes him a complete question mark for 2010. Even if he is healthy enough to return to the field, will the injury sap his explosiveness, making him a less complete player?
And even the preeminent acquisition of last offseason (no, not Oliver Perez), Francisco Rodriguez, has an ERA of 5.50 since June 18, with 20 walks and five home runs allowed in just 34 1/3 innings over that time. If he's not injured, as he claims, this doesn't bode well for his future performance.
But of course, all of this pessimism can be turned around. David Wright is a season removed from being one of the most complete players in the game. For Reyes, Beltran and Santana, greatness was only a few months ago. And coming into June 18, K-Rod's ERA was a microscopic 0.56.
In other words, while star players are normally the givens on a particular roster, for the Mets, these five are anything but.
However, they are far more predictable than the rest of the roster. Even the secondary players and don't provide much guidance for what to expect in 2010.
In the case of Jeff Francoeur, his supporters and detractors should both agree that 2010 is a complete crapshoot from a performance perspective. (This is why you don't give him a three-year deal, but I digress.) Is he the .250/.282/.352 player he was in Atlanta in 2009? Is he the .312/.338/.498 player he has been in New York? Normally, you'd figure he is something in between, but for the most part, Francoeur has been one or the other.
And what on earth is Daniel Murphy? Is he a patient hitter who doesn't hit for enough power? Is he a power hitter who doesn't have enough patience? Is he both? Neither? At this point, there are 200 at-bat samples in his career to support any of these contentions.
Even Luis Castillo provides no real insight. He had a tremendous 2009 at the plate, but the improvement over 2008 was mostly batting average-driven, and his BABIP went from .267 to .348, mostly on the back of a career-high line drive rate. His defense, however, got even worse, and it is hard to have much faith in his long-term prospects when he seems to need to squat down and rest every time the pitching coach comes out mid-inning.
We don't know if Fernando Martinez can hit Major League pitching, or if he can stay healthy enough to do it. We don't know if Angel Pagan can stay healthy or remember how many outs there are.
We don't even know if Nick Evans still exists. And hitters are supposed to be easier to project!
The pitching staff offers no easy answers, either. Is Mike Pelfrey's increased strikeout rate a good sign for 2010? Is his home run tendency a harbinger of doom?
Can you tell me if John Maine will be healthy or not? Throw 90 or 95?
Oliver Perez was difficult to predict before he was returning from knee surgery. What will he be in 2010?
Is Bobby Parnell an eighth-inning shutdown reliever? Failed starter? Middle reliever in training?
We don't know what Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve are capable of, and Minaya will have to judge them based on a handful of 2009 innings and 2010 Spring Training, a notoriously poor way to determine anything in terms of future performance.
We don't even know whether Sean Green will throw overhand or sidearm.
Now, I suppose one could argue that with the Mets at 67-89, it's for the best that 2009 may or may not be predictive. For instance, the Kansas City Royals are 64-92, but there's a much higher degree of certainty that they will be terrible next year.
Still, the flip side is that, given the huge amount of money invested in this team, it would be useful to have some sense of whether to invest in 2010, or to be planning instead for the long-term.
A hybrid approach, such as the one advocated by Ted Berg, may be the only way to go -- not simply because it represents the optimal way for a baseball team to build generally, but because where the Mets are heading into 2010 is truly anybody's guess.
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