11/05/2009 1:10 PM ET
Jets midseason progress report
How does team grade out in Ryan's first year?
By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv
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Darrelle Revis is a shutdown corner, but a few more interceptions by the Jets' defense would go a long way. (AP)

We are hearing "Same Old Jets" again. But I disagree. The special teams fiasco was a random occurrence. Ted Ginn is not Devin Hester or even Percy Harvin. He's not someone on such a special teams roll that you half expect him to go the distance on every kick.

Mark Sanchez was forced to take the training wheels off after the game blew up in the Jets' faces and he responded. This was the step I had mentioned as being critical in an earlier piece. He needed to bounce back and play well in the same game after you've played poorly. Sanchez didn't throw any picks but was badly out of sync the entire first half.

With the team off this week, let's get out the red pen and grade it. We're not going to focus on units so much but rather on our key stats -- those team numbers that historically have correlated most strongly to winning and losing. These stats, as detailed here in our updated (though Week 8) Key Stat Power Index are net red-zone possessions, net yards per play, net interception rate and net third-down percentage.

Overall, the Jets sit at 17th in our rankings, or right between the Bears and Jaguars. Here's how they sit in the AFC East: behind the Patriots (third) and Dolphins (15th) and ahead of the Bills (21st).

Red-zone possessions: They're sixth here, their best ranking in any of our net team stats. They're 16th in trips per game on offense and fourth best at preventing opposing trips. The offense is 10th best in red-zone scoring efficiency because running the ball well becomes more important the closer you get to pay dirt.

Net yards per play: The Jets rank 10th overall in this stat, which includes sacks. The key component here is net yards per pass attempt, where the Jets are 11th. The offense ranks 20th, the defense is second and the Jets are No. 1 the last three games (a sick 4.3 YPA allowed). In yards per rush, the offense is carrying the weight -- it's fourth best with the defense 20th.

Sacks: These are included in our per play and YPA stats, but need to be broken down separately. The Jets are 19th in sack percentage allowed. That's bad, but not as bad as the defense, which is 29th in defensive sack percentage. And this is after finally punishing an opposing passer, registering six sacks against the Dolphins, though one was of the running back, Ronnie Brown, when he tried to pass out of the Wildcat. Teams speed up the passing game anticipating the Jets' blitz, I know, but this is evidence that the Jets do not have even a single pass rusher who can win one-on-one matchups. Vernon Gholston is a terrible bust and doesn't even look like a football player out there.

Interceptions: Why not just turnovers? Well, picks tell about 80 percent of the turnover story in terms of correlation to winning. Note, too, that most fumbles come on sacks. The game is all about passing the ball better than your opponent. A pick is worth about six points, historically. The Jets are 30th here in net pick percentage of attempts. The offensive is 30th and the defense is 17th. The blitz has not worked in generating sacks and turnovers. At least not yet. We need to see dramatic improvement here in the second half, and Sanchez must tighten things up and avoid throwing into coverage, too.

Net third-down percentage: The team is a ho-hum 20th. The offense is 23rd and this is the major area where Sanchez needs to improve. Last week, the Jets ran too much on 2nd-and-10 and even 2nd-and-11 after a run was stuffed. It's becoming predictable. And then it's 3rd-and-8 or 3rd-and-9. You're better off throwing a safe five-yard pass on second down and hoping that your receiver breaks a tackle.

Progress report:The Jets get a B-minus overall thus far from me. I'm grading on the curve of having a rookie quarterback. Sanchez gets a "B," because the glass is always half-full with a rookie quarterback. He's looked good to very good in four games -- Houston, New England, both Miami games and Oakland. He's played terribly in two -- Buffalo and New Orleans. And he was neutral (at best) in one -- Tennessee. There's no way any rational NFL observer could have expected better results.

Rex Ryan has done a good job with the defense. The team is third in yards per play allowed. He's had one bad game - at Miami. Yes, that was really bad, I know. The Buffalo game was neutral. In all the other games, the defense played at a championship level (sans sacks). So Ryan has to get a "B" at least, but I'd give him a B-plus. You can't hang him for the special teams last week because that's Paul Westhoff's job and no one in the league is more respected than Westhoff in that role.

Remaining schedule: We'll stipulate that the Jets will win a game we don't expect and lose one similarly. I have them finishing at 9-7 with an outside shot at 10-6 if Sanchez can play with more consistency. That's a good year. The notion that this team is a "win now" team is laughable. Of course, you want to win now. But if Sanchez ends up being a franchise quarterback, you have a 10-year window, at least. The other guys are just pieces that you can always mix and match.

Michael Salfino is a nationally syndicated columnist and a regular contributor to SNY.tv.
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