SNY.tv: Online Home of All Things Sports

Let's examine the latest Super Bowl Odds before we preview what portends to be a very dull Thanksgiving night matchup against the floundering (and disintegrating) Broncos in Denver.

First let me say straight out that I'm sticking to my prediction that the Giants will win 11 games, on the assumption that the Vikings will be preparing for their bye as the locked-in No. 2 seed when the Giants travel to Minnesota in Week 17.

This is not a market view, though, as the Giants (+3300) are listed behind the Cowboys (+2300) and the Eagles (+3000) in just the NFC East. In the entire NFC field, they also are behind the Cardinals (+2000) and, of course, the Vikings (+600) and Saints (+400). Those numbers are what you get on a $100 bet if the team wins the Super Bowl.

I think the Giants are very cheap right now.

I know Brandon Jacobs is a baby about his body and is unlikely to be able to grind out 20 carries in any given week, never mind 25 or 30. You're an NFL running back, Brandon. Things are going to hurt a little after every play. You heal up during the offseason.

But Eli Manning showed last week that the passing game is dangerous (his first ever 300-yard game at home) and the receiving corps is deep -- though continuing to put Domenik Hixon on the field over Hakeem Nicks is insanity. I understand the Giants do not trust rookies, but there are no rookies in Week 12.

So, they can survive without a running game even if Jacobs begs out of games and Ahmad Bradshaw's broken foot gets the better of him now along with the badly sprained ankle. (If Jacobs was half as tough as Bradshaw, the Giants would really have something.)

The key though is this defense. Can the Giants change their defensive identity like they did so suddenly in 2007? The talent is there, even though the lineman are not playing up to their contracts and beating blockers in obvious passing downs. The secondary last week played well for three quarters, but then the pass rush failed. On the plus side, Roddy White, a very good receiver, was shut down. Remember, too, that in '07, the Giants defense was shredded in every game they faced a top passer and then flipped a switch, seemingly, come January.

More on the Broncos below, but, in summary, I guarantee a win. Denver would have its hands full with Bergen Catholic High School right now.

Then, New York will be favored at home the next two weeks against the Cowboys and Eagles. The Redskins should provide little resistance at Washington, where the Giants play well. And then the Panthers visit the Meadowlands before the trip to Minnesota with the Vikings, likely in scrimmage mode. Seriously, the Giants could easily go 12-4 without even playing great -- 11-5 is conservative. Yes, I'm talking myself into the trip to Vegas to wager. But I went the wrong way on "Alien vs. Predator," so what do I know.

Denver is reeling, fighting amongst themselves and resorting to the dreaded, players-only meetings. Worse, rookie coach Josh McDaniels is trash talking opponents now during pre-game warmups.

It's worse than a slump, though, for the Broncos. The offense is of a minor-league variety -- five red-zone trips during the last three weeks, a span during which the Giants have made 12.

Denver is also being exploited in the air, yielding six TD passes the last three weeks -- so it's very likely Manning has another multi-TD effort Thursday night.

Prediction time: I like Madison Hedgecock, a great blocker at fullback. But the Giants need to go three-wides in their base formation with Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Nicks. Let Jacobs be the one-back (until he limps off again). Force opponents to go nickel against you and then pound them by using Kevin Boss as another offensive lineman.

There's no need for thinking outside the box on Thursday night. Kyle Orton is, well, Kyle Orton. It's a joke that ESPN's Trent Dilfer was talking him up a few weeks ago as a top five QB and the league MVP. The Broncos are ninth worst in QB sack percentage allowed and were seventh worst last week against the Chargers, who don't have near the Giants pass-rushing talent. So you must demand four or five sacks from this front four.

Denver should not score more than 14 points. Manning's over/under is 270 yards and two TDs. Jacobs' over/under is 10 carries, but he really needs a big game with Bradshaw looking very questionable for the balance of the year. It's going to be easy over the pecan pie. Giants 27, Broncos 13.