For the fourth time in five years, a Big East team will play in the final of one of the best early-season tournaments, the Maui Invitational. While the tournament isn't officially seeded, Cincinnati came in as the presumptive No. 5 seed and has since defeated nationally-ranked Vanderbilt and Maryland in impressive fashion.
In the final for the Maui Invitational, the Bearcats will take on Gonzaga, who squeaked by Colorado and then took down Wisconsin in the semis. Disparities in free-throw shooting and rebounding could determine the outcome. Here's a preview of what could be the Big East's third major tournament victory of the young season.
Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start because of its interior. The Bearcats have dominated both glasses, especially the offensive one, in the early going. Yancy Gates (15.2 percent offensive-rebounding rate), Steve Toyloy (12.9) and, surprisingly, 6-foot-3 Dion Dixon (10.1) have been terrific in getting the Bearcats second chances, and it's a good thing, because UC is shooting at just a 48.7 percent eFG. They've needed the extra possessions that offensive rebounding brings.
The bad shooting is almost entirely a factor of poor outside shooting (28.7 percent on 3-pointers). Cincinnati is great at every factor impacted by interior play, and 2-point shooting is no different. Gates (59.5 2-point percentage), Rashad Bishop (68.4) and guards Dixon (62.5) and Deonta Vaughn (57.1) are all capable of getting it done inside the arc.
This is where Cincinnati's positive offensive characteristics cease. The outside shooting has been very poor. Vaughn, a 33.8 percent shooter last season is shooting at 28 percent this season. This is not a significant difference but a reminder that the senior is not an exceptional shooter, just usually a more capable one. Freshman Lance Stephenson (3-for-13), Larry Davis (4-for-12), Cashmere Wright (3-for-11) and Dixon (2-for-11) join Vaughn as the five Bearcats who shoot the three most often. On Mick Cronin's entire team, only Bishop (4-for-10) has a percentage one would consider adequate. Therefore, if Gonzaga can keep the Bearcats on the perimeter -- and close possessions with a defensive rebound -- it can limit their offensive efficiency.
For all of Cincinnati's effectiveness inside on offense, it is quizzically poor at getting to the foul line, and herein lies one of the keys to the game. Gonzaga should have a large advantage in free throws. Cincinnati neither gets there often nor prevents its opponents from doing so, while the Bulldogs are quite the opposite. Consider this: of all the Bearcats, only Vaughn makes as many as three free throws for every eight field goals he attempts, a rate considered adequate. Five of Gonzaga's top seven players make that many free throws per eight attempts.
Steven Gray, Elias Harris, Robert Sacre, Matt Bouldin, G.J. Vilarino -- these players will put pressure on the Bearcats defense, because they all can hit shots and get to the line. This is the conundrum opponents have faced against the Bulldogs: they shoot so well as a whole (58.0 percent true-shooting percentage compared to Cincy's 50.9) and run their sets so well that fouling can sometimes seem like the only answer. This team is the first since Adam Morrison's final season (2005-06) that has shown such an ability to get to the line. Against a Wisconsin team that is usually loathe to foul, Sacre and Bouldin each made 7-of-7 from the line, and Gonzaga outscored its opponents by 11 points at the line in a 13-point win.
While Bouldin is the shooting star (58.5 percent eFG), Gonzaga actually spreads the ball around pretty well, as the Zags' top four players -- Bouldin, Gray, Harris, Sacre -- each have usage rates between 22 and 25 percent, and all of them are efficient. Bouldin is the dual threat -- from inside and out -- while Gray is more effective from outside (41.7 percent on 3-pointers). Harris and the 7-foot Sacre are strong from 15 feet in. Freshman point guard Demetri Goodson is less active on the offensive end, and he has been a bit turnover-prone, though his nine-point, zero-assist performance against Wisconsin on Tuesday leaves room for optimism.
If Cincinnati can force enough missed shots -- a rather obvious statement, I suppose -- it should have the edge. UC's length and athleticism help the Bearcats to be very effective in interior defense, even though Gates is the lone consistent shot-blocker. Bishop, Stephenson and Toyloy also have the length to affect shot selection. Sacre, Harris and Bouldin combine to pose the severest test UC's interior defense has faced this season. With A.J. Ogilvy and Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt was to provide that test on Monday, but those two made just 5-of-16 2-pointers, while the team made just 9-of-32 (28.1 percent).
Led by Elias (22.4 defensive-rebounding percentage) and Sacre (23.0), Gonzaga is terrific on the defensive glass, but it's never been very good on the offensive side, as Mark Few's teams seem more interested in preventing the easy transition bucket. When facing a team that is not going to turn it over very much or miss that many shots, it becomes imperative for UC to close out every defensive possession possible with a rebound.
I've listed Gonzaga's free throws and Cincinnati's rebounding as the games two keys, but with two teams that appear to be evenly matched, the difference usually comes in who hits more shots. Gonzaga is the better shot-making team, so it should have a modest edge assuming it's able to get good looks against the Bearcats' length and quickness.
Post on facebook
Fan Comments 
print
email
